UK EU referendum

[Brucey]

blimey!

I honestly didn't think that it would work out like that, or be as close; it was pretty clear that local to me, the vote would be 'in' and indeed it was. As much as anything else the vote was essentially a protest against our government/political class, a bit like a mid-term by-election. Usually this sends a signal but this time it will leave a very lasting impression.

However, this is democracy, so now we have to get on with it.

The fall-out is likely to be extensive; the financial markets have gone all wobbly, Cameron is standing down (for a PM that no-one except that the Tory party will have voted for) and Corbyn is likely facing a vote of 'no confidence' too.

I think that the law of unintended consequences also means that Scotland may now have another referendum, and the Union may be dissolved, which would (IMHO) be a profoundly bad thing.

That Trump and Putin think that Brexit 'is a good thing' makes me think that it might, after all (and despite the many issues and compromises surrounding EU membership), be more bad than good if/when we leave. But I guess there is only one way to find out, and we are going to find out.

cheers

[olympia57]

I think that that was the problem with DC and the "in " brigade as a whole ,they just didn't look beyond London and their comfort zone . As a Politician he played a poor game of poker.
It was inevitable that DC would have to stand down if he lost ,and he has done the noble thing . Corbyn is a Oaf. I watched the sinister Peter Mandleson being interviewed late afternoon and he put it very succinctly when he said " sometimes you have to ask yourself if you are in the right job " , wonderful........He'll be yesterdays man soon.
As for Scotland , and I'm Scottish , I think it has always been a matter of time until they get their wish . The SNP are a belligerent lot and have been manoevering for this "opportunity" for four decades .Perhaps they should look to Ireland to see their future . Whiskey and Oil will not pay for a top class ,free health system,free university education ,free prescriptions or even free bus passes .... to paraphrase , " there is no such thing as a free lunch " .
Once the average Jock Thomson has to pay the equivalent of € 65 to see a doctor , a bankloan for dental work ,witness their OAP's being means tested for a medical card , pay for all their childrens school books EVERY YEAR and witness their infantile politicians adopt a God like self believe in themselves ,they'll be crying into there porridge .
If so , then so be it .
As for Northern Ireland ? The Republic will try to avoid picking up that tab . 1.8 million people that have enjoyed the benefits that came from being British suddenly crash landing like Icarus , now that'll make the shopkeepers and librarians that run the country earn their inflated salaries and pensions .
Very sad but inevitable , the world is changing at an unprecedented speed and we're all in the front row of the Cinema eating popcorn .
I don't see this as a catastrophe , it's a jolt in a process of change . The world will keep turning and SKY news will be covering something else this time next week.

Cynic , who me ?

[alabbasi]

As they say "be careful, you might get what you ask for"
This is likely to get more ugly as times moves on. I suspect that many EU bureaucrats would want to make an example of Britain so that the next country doesn't try it.

[sharkfan]

I think that that was the problem with DC and the "in " brigade as a whole ,they just didn't look beyond London and their comfort zone . As a Politician he played a poor game of poker.
It was inevitable that DC would have to stand down if he lost ,and he has done the noble thing . Corbyn is a Oaf. I watched the sinister Peter Mandleson being interviewed late afternoon and he put it very succinctly when he said " sometimes you have to ask yourself if you are in the right job " , wonderful........He'll be yesterdays man soon.
As for Scotland , and I'm Scottish , I think it has always been a matter of time until they get their wish . The SNP are a belligerent lot and have been manoevering for this "opportunity" for four decades .Perhaps they should look to Ireland to see their future . Whiskey and Oil will not pay for a top class ,free health system,free university education ,free prescriptions or even free bus passes .... to paraphrase , " there is no such thing as a free lunch " .
Once the average Jock Thomson has to pay the equivalent of € 65 to see a doctor , a bankloan for dental work ,witness their OAP's being means tested for a medical card , pay for all their childrens school books EVERY YEAR and witness their infantile politicians adopt a God like self believe in themselves ,they'll be crying into there porridge .
If so , then so be it .
As for Northern Ireland ? The Republic will try to avoid picking up that tab . 1.8 million people that have enjoyed the benefits that came from being British suddenly crash landing like Icarus , now that'll make the shopkeepers and librarians that run the country earn their inflated salaries and pensions .
Very sad but inevitable , the world is changing at an unprecedented speed and we're all in the front row of the Cinema eating popcorn .
I don't see this as a catastrophe , it's a jolt in a process of change . The world will keep turning and SKY news will be covering something else this time next week.

Cynic , who me ?

Perfectly put.

The Union is in jeopardy but there is a small chance that a glimpse of the reality beyond for both the Scottish and all Irish voters may still bond us together.

The anti-Scottish resentment stirred up by Scottish SNP Politicians amongst English people may well lead to complete apathy to a second Scottish Independence vote and should they get their wish then all kinds of realities will come crashing down including the re-instatement of a thousands of years old border should Scotland wish to join the EU and have no choice but to take on the Euro.

The Irish dilemma is far more deep-rooted and a question only for the peoples of the Emerald Isle to answer; bearing grudges on an Olympian scale has long been the mark of men and women of St Patrick's domain and I fear for the rhetoric that may seep out following the words of that snake McGuinness.

Britain has for a long time now been told it is a bit-part player in the world, we have been shrugged aside and told our influence has wained and our views and opinions are unwanted and unnecessary; yesterdays events would strongly suggest otherwise - we are still a country to whom others look for countenance, advice and perhaps even leadership. The EU has been dealt a body-blow from which it may not recover - the fears of every Brussels fat-cat has come to light and the world economies have skipped, jolted and twisted in response.

IMHO Britain has sent the strongest message that the EU in it's present state is broken and heading in the wrong direction; we have been right about Europe for many hundreds of years now and perhaps the peoples of Europe will once again look to the British to show a way ahead for this corner of the world.

[Pod]

Perfectly put.

The Union is in jeopardy but there is a small chance that a glimpse of the reality beyond for both the Scottish and all Irish voters may still bond us together.

The anti-Scottish resentment stirred up by Scottish SNP Politicians amongst English people may well lead to complete apathy to a second Scottish Independence vote and should they get their wish then all kinds of realities will come crashing down including the re-instatement of a thousands of years old border should Scotland wish to join the EU and have no choice but to take on the Euro.

The Irish dilemma is far more deep-rooted and a question only for the peoples of the Emerald Isle to answer; bearing grudges on an Olympian scale has long been the mark of men and women of St Patrick's domain and I fear for the rhetoric that may seep out following the words of that snake McGuinness.

Britain has for a long time now been told it is a bit-part player in the world, we have been shrugged aside and told our influence has wained and our views and opinions are unwanted and unnecessary; yesterdays events would strongly suggest otherwise - we are still a country to whom others look for countenance, advice and perhaps even leadership. The EU has been dealt a body-blow from which it may not recover - the fears of every Brussels fat-cat has come to light and the world economies have skipped, jolted and twisted in response.

IMHO Britain has sent the strongest message that the EU in it's present state is broken and heading in the wrong direction; we have been right about Europe for many hundreds of years now and perhaps the peoples of Europe will once again look to the British to show a way ahead for this corner of the world.

Very well put.

After the Scottish referendum and the hateful rhetoric directed towards us, I for one (who never had a problem with Scotland or the Scottish people before) would be very pleased to get shot of the whole lot of them. Scotland has been a drain on England's recources for hundreds of years, apart from the brief period when North Sea Oil was being exploited. So go on, Fish Woman, have your referendum and leave, we won't miss you! Don't think you can keep Sterling though, or come running back to us when you run out of money like last time your country went broke and England bailed you out!

As for the "Irish problem". Sadly, I can't ever see that being fully resolved.

With respect to what's left of the EEC, or whatever they're calling themselves at the moment, I think they must be very worried to have lost their Cash Cow. Being the 2nd highest net contributor, the loss of England will surely leave a gaping hole in their finances. Maybe its what they need to force them to reform.

[sharkfan]

With respect to what's left of the EEC, or whatever they're calling themselves at the moment, I think they must be very worried to have lost their Cash Cow. Being the 2nd highest net contributor, the loss of England will surely leave a gaping hole in their finances. Maybe its what they need to force them to reform.

This is an excellent point and a view that I hadn't considered.

The league table of European Economies, and EU contributors, puts Germany first followed by Britain, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands and so on. With Britain stating their desire to leave and France apparently the next Eurozone country very close to needing an ECB bailout where does that Germany and Europe as a whole?

The Germans are already sick of bailing out its age-old but broke European partners as well as bankrolling the newer EU members but has always had Britain and France to help shoulder the financial burden, but with France near to bankruptcy that leaves Germany as the only real EU member making any money and with Britain leaving then Germany will effectively be financial supporting the EU project on its own.

Can they afford to? Will the German people want to?

The answer to both questions is surely no and that will leave a huge conundrum for the EU; they can't keep printing imaginary money to support all of Europes failing economies whilst frivolously and unaccountably spending the ever dwindling amount of real money that quite possible only Germany will be able to contribute.

Britains desire to quit the EU has also started many other European States to question their continued involvement in the current EU, and it is likely that two or three more countries may hold their own In/Out referendums before the year is out.

It may only take one more country to say Out, perhaps even before Britain even starts her own exit negotiations, for Europes Leaders and Politicians to direct the EU to produce the wholesale, widespread and meaningful reforms that Britain has long argued for.

[Pod]

I absolutely agree.

I think that its interesting to consider that, had the EU given Cameron what he tried to gain in the negotiations, then no doubt the vote would have been to remain. Let's face it, he wasn't asking for much - far less than I wanted!

It just goes to shown that those in control of the EU either massively under-estimated the wrath of the English & Welsh populations. Or, alternatively (and IMO, more likely) were just too full of their own self-importance to deign to grant him anything meaningful. Now the Eurocrats are in a mess of their own making which I cannot see ending well.

They'll have to put their own troops into European trouble spots and regional wars in the future rather than letting British forces shoulder the burden alongside the Americans.

Interesting to note that our parents & grand-parents fought Germany twice in the space of only twenty one years to stop them taking over Europe. Now they've got it (helped greatly by the French, which I just cannot understand, bearing in mind what they put France through in WW1 & WW2). And they're welcome to it.

An interesting few years ahead. I think the EU by 2025 will be a much changed -and weaker- entity than it is at the moment.

[Freshbread]

They'll have to put their own troops into European trouble spots and regional wars in the future rather than letting British forces shoulder the burden alongside the Americans.

Interesting to note that our parents & grand-parents fought Germany twice in the space of only twenty one years to stop them taking over Europe. Now they've got it (helped greatly by the French, which I just cannot understand, bearing in mind what they put France through in WW1 & WW2). And they're welcome to it.

An interesting few years ahead. I think the EU by 2025 will be a much changed -and weaker- entity than it is at the moment.

I don't think that first point will change unfortunately. I'm not a doom and gloom kind of guy, but I think you Brits will continue that role as will us Yanks, Canadian's etc. The pound will soar, and you guys won't have some non elected guy/gal from another country dictating how much a chair from Spain should cost though...right

That brings the other point. I don't think Germany will have time for anything else other continue to make money to supporting the non performers. Greece has a slippery slope to deal with. More than ever your neighbors will want to do trade that makes sense for the UK....the ones who have money.

Now that all of the 1%er's have moved their money into gov bonds,gold etc the dust will settle and all will be well, or will the uk break up

[alabbasi]

[olympia57]

Now that the dust is settling and I can look back at the events leading up to and on the 23rd if the pontificating faceless mandarins of Brussels had only had one tentacle anchored to reality it could all have been so different.
After watching the crass and unedifying spectacle of various representatives from the 5 remaining original players in the game issuing dire playground warnings to Britain AND any other country who dared to look on in admiration it confirmed my belief that the whole EU is like Tony Sopranos team , if your in your in , want out and we'll kill you ....
It's been 12 years since I left the UK to live here but on my return trips I witnessed a sea change in the demographic and cultural make up of the country ,especially in and around London . Immigration was said to be the key factor in the leave camp but I believe the key point was controlled immigration . UK will always require skilled people ,just like every other country , but the inability to choose whom they want to come to , live and prosper in but be a net contributor rankled the common man. Immigration is a positive and healthy thing but only with control.I'm sure our Stateside members understand that .
I'm convinced that the main reason for the exit was simply that the core clique of unelected players in the running and control of the burgeoning state known as the EU were totally unwilling to accept that the UK and others simply don't want to be controlled and governed by people who have skillfully manipulated themselves into a position of power without representation.
I voted in the 1975 EU Common Market referendum and it wasn't to create this Hydra.
If , as was rightly said by pod , the fat controllers of the EU had just given DC what the British people wanted then this state of change could and would have been avoided .
However , the greedy grasp of power and control would have to have been relinquished .
" There are none of them so blind as them who will not see ...."
Now , just watch what happens when a country invests internally in it's own future .

[GazM3]

from afar its hard to understand what all the fuss is about.

the only change for us here is cheaper car parts as pound has dropped a little.

[alabbasi]

the only change for us here is cheaper car parts as pound has dropped a little.

Pretty sure my 401k took a big hit.

[Pod]

It's been 12 years since I left the UK to live here but on my return trips I witnessed a sea change in the demographic and cultural make up of the country ,especially in and around London . Immigration was said to be the key factor in the leave camp but I believe the key point was controlled immigration .

I live in Kent, around 25 miles South of Central London. You are correct about the changes. There are now parts of East London where the indigenous population has been pretty much forced out. This is why the London vote to remain in the EU was so high - there is a substantial immigrant population there, quite possibly outnumbering those whose ancestors were London born and bred.

We have a massive influx of foreigners, currently with a "right" to live and work in the UK (and claim benefits, including child benefits for children who are not even living in this country!). There are cultural differences - these people come here and live in their own communities, not mixing with us and not respecting our laws or way of life. All talk of this is suppressed by the Liberal Left and anybody who dares to speak out is immediately denounced as a racist. I have a friend who is a Metropolitan Police Officer who tells me that they have significant problems with all aspects of Law and Order, especially crime and vehicle offences. This is all swept under the carpet though.

[alabbasi]

I have to admit the I saw the same thing. My parents moved as young Doctors to the UK so you can call me a non native Brit. Neither I or any other member of my family claimed any type of income assistance (including child benefit). My family certainly participated by taking advantage of a quality university education, and contributed towards and received benefit such as the NHS which is wonderful system, while contributing through taxation and working for the NHS.

I'm a capitalist so I don't really have a problem with economic migration. If one has a skill, one should be able to move to where the jobs are. I'd suspect that any of us ex pats living abroad (or any Americans of Irish, Italian decent etc) would understand.

What I saw in London on my last visit is the vast number of people that did not appear to be working. They appeared to be spending money however while politicians tell us that the social system is at its breaking point. The debate about migration was mishandled, and politicians shouted everyone down as racist for protesting, It's a huge problem. I saw it right away.

The EU refuses to listen to any country that goes against their grand plan which created this perfect storm.

All of this frustration about migration is the effect and not the cause. The cause is the over generous benefit system that makes it more attractive for people to not work. I don't have any sympathy for someone who moved to the UK to claim benefits from the welfare system so that they can send money back to their country. I have no sympathy for the British citizen that's upset about foreigners claiming benefits that they feel only they should be entitled to.

Bureaucrats in the EU will make this difficult for Britain to do business with Europe in order to deter other countries from following suit. They've failed with everything else so all they now have is the stick,

I feel sorry for the working tax payers and business in the UK (British or otherwise) who now have to deal with uncertainty, regulation and the loss of wealth through losses in trade, retirement and property values. They'll still be expected to continue picking up the tab for the free loaders.

Europe needs to change, Britain needs to change also as I can't see going back to the way things were in the 70's as a model for success.

I don't really care about cultural differences as long as the people who come contribute.

Now. Does anyone know of any 'Buy British' websites? I'd be very interested in seeing if there is anything that I can do to support the UK from here.

[sharkfan]

OK.

How about some absolutely left field conjecture, all with the disclosure that IANAL.

Firstly, there was no legal reason or responsibility for the Government to offer the British peoples a referendum on EU membership; it was simply a promise of the incumbent Prime Minister.

Secondly, there is no British legal responsibility or EU Laws or guidelines that define that Article 50 has to be invoked following a UK referendum giving a negative response to continuing EU membership.

Soooooooo, if the above is true and I think it is, say the following happens;

Cameron resigns before invoking article 50.
EU leaders continue in their calls for widespread EU reform to prevent their own countries from calling for a referendum.
Boris the Eurosceptic becomes PM, Labour meltdown in confusion.
The EU and Boris open discussions before invoking Article 50 with the EU saying that there will be significant reforms.
Boris tells the UK people that we should wait until the reforms are clarified and voted upon before we decide upon invoking Article 50.
The EU reforms are pretty much everything that the British public, and other States people's, have been asking for for years.
Boris either declares the terms and and conditions of the EU have changed significantly enough for him to ignore the previous referendum or a second referendum sees a definite vote to stay in the now reformed EU.

Plausible?

[olympia57]

Entirely , anything is in the current state of flux.
It's possible that a U turn could be the way forward for many aspiring holders of the reigns but he , or she ...... would have to have balls as big as that porker on page one of this thread.
It's been done before. Here in Ireland the voting public got it wrong when they voted against the Lisbon Treaty so the powers that be just insisted they voted again . The public were so confused at the 270 pages of complex legal language they just voted the other way and all was well in the garden again .
I never underestimate the visible, but denied, manipulative nature of one politician let alone a shoal of them.
As I said , were in the Cinema and the next movie is about to start .
More popcorn please !

[Brucey]

another possibility;

we get a new PM, who then calls a general election before enacting article 50. The new government elected are either

a) without a clear mandate to leave the EU and/or
b) with a clear mandate to stay in the EU.

-what then? Which takes precedence, the referendum or the election?

BTW I would like to point out that amongst ordinary folk elsewhere in the EU the news that Britain has voted to leave has been greeted with shock and dismay; there isn't country in the EU that doesn't owe part of its current freedom and prosperity to Britain, for all kinds of reasons. They see very clearly that the EU will, without Britain, be an even more lopsided, dysfunctional entity.

Whether this will translate into action for EU reform amongst the political classes within other EU countries is quite another matter.

cheers

[Pod]

I fear you guys may be on to something. It has become obvious that the Tories are set upon stopping Boris getting the job. So they get a new leader who was NOT for Brexit (and the vast majority supported Remain) as Brucey has suggested. He then has the choice of having discussions with Brussels and only then choosing to either call an election, or evoke article 50 - whichever he feels is the better option. Whatever happens, the Remain politicians are all calling for them to be involved in the process. Why??? Its like a party losing a General Election, then demanding to be part of Government.

BTW, I'm not a Labour supporter, but it makes me chuckle. A mischevious group of members propose JC for party leader, nor expecting him to win - but he does. Although he is obviously not a Remain supporter, he is hounded by his party and the media - and he reluctantly (and half-heartedly, well 75% to be accurate) joins the majority of our MPs who wish to remain.

He has little involvement with the campaign and the country votes to leave. Now the same people who got him elected as party leader in the first place are deserting the "Shadow Cabinet" (rats & sinking ships come to mind) and calling for a vote of no confidence in him and a new leadership election - which he says he will contest, as he obviously likes being leader.

Seems to me to be a prime example of being careful of what one wishes for, just in case it comes true

[alabbasi]

What are you expecting. With any bureaucracy that creates piles of rules , the only way anything gets done is by setting up a back channel.

[olympia57]

I became a little alarmed this am when I heard a low level inclusion within reports on both BBC and SKY that any negotiations would require an agreement of free movement for trade access
This made think that how convenient that would be for all parties as a mutual compromise for the impasse that is on the horizon......

It is not beyond comprehension that the result could be skillfully ignored / overturned or dissolved in a morass of political shenanegans by the ambitious in a period of turmoil .
There are many egotistical people jostling for position right now , all over Europe and UK , and without trying to sound conspiritual , who knows what meetings are taking place in the small cafe's of Brussels , Berlin and Paris .....Politicians are all of a similar ilk.

This is more entertaining than I ever imagined .........

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